Makar's record deal shrinks before it starts
Cale Makar has signed an eight-year extension with Colorado carrying a reported $20.4 million AAV, the largest annual cap hit in NHL history. The Avalanche confirmed the eight-year term on Friday, keeping Makar under contract through 2034-35, but did not disclose the financial terms. Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported the $20.4 million figure, while the Associated Press also reported a total value of $163.2 million. Makar, 27, will not play under the new deal this season. He has one year left on his six-year, $54 million contract, carrying a $9 million cap hit through 2026-27. Colorado therefore has two different numbers to consider. Makar's reported $20.4 million AAV equals 19.62 per cent of the NHL's confirmed $104 million cap for 2026-27, only $400,000 below the $20.8 million individual maximum reported for the coming season. Makar's extension starts a year later. The NHL and NHLPA project the upper limit to rise to $113.5 million for 2027-28. Makar would take 17.97 per cent of Colorado's available space against that projected ceiling. The league and union have left room for a minor adjustment to the 2027-28 projection, so 17.97 per cent is not a final figure. Colorado can still judge the deal against a very different cap from the one in place when Makar signed it.
The cap share
Colorado is paying a record nominal price. The projected cap increase before the contract begins changes the share of the roster budget attached to it. The NHL will move from a $104 million ceiling in 2026-27 to a projected $113.5 million in 2027-28, an increase of $9.5 million. Makar's cap hit will rise by $11.4 million when his new contract replaces the $9 million deal he has now. Colorado would therefore have league-wide cap growth absorb $9.5 million of Makar's $11.4 million raise, about 83 per cent of the increase. If every other Avalanche contract stayed unchanged, Colorado would have $95 million left under the ceiling after Makar in 2026-27 and $93.1 million in 2027-28. Colorado still gives up real flexibility. The cap increase absorbs most of Makar's raise before the extension takes effect. Sakic, Colorado's president of hockey operations and general manager, called Makar a "generational defenseman" when the club announced the extension. Colorado has priced him as a player who should sit at the top of the NHL market, not merely at the top of his position. Makar finished last season with 20 goals and 79 points in 75 games. Colorado says he has 507 points in 470 regular-season games, with only Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey also averaging at least a point per game among defencemen over their careers. Makar has won the Norris Trophy twice, the Calder Trophy and the Conn Smythe Trophy, the last of those coming during Colorado's 2022 Stanley Cup run. Sakic had said four days before the signing that he was "not worried about it" as negotiations continued. NHL teams need the cap beneath any dollar figure. Clubs pay fixed cap hits while the ceiling can rise around them, making the same AAV progressively lighter if league revenues and the negotiated cap keep growing. Sportsnet used the same distinction when examining Connor McDavid's Edmonton contract in 2022. McDavid, one year from the start of that extension when he signed it, agreed to an eight-year, $12.5 million AAV when the figure represented 16.67 per cent of the cap.
Edmonton carried a smaller share when the contract became active in 2018-19. The higher ceiling reduced McDavid's first-year cap share to about 15.7 per cent. Makar has a larger gap between those two measures. He signed at 19.62 per cent of the current ceiling, while the scheduled increase before 2027-28 reduces his projected first-year share by 1.64 percentage points.
The market around Makar
Anaheim, Minnesota and San Jose have already pushed the top of the NHL market higher over the past 11 months. Anaheim matched Philadelphia's five-year offer sheet for Leo Carlsson in July, giving the centre an $18 million AAV beginning in 2026-27. Carlsson will take 17.31 per cent of the confirmed $104 million cap. Minnesota signed Kirill Kaprizov to an eight-year, $136 million extension beginning in 2026-27, a $17 million annual cap hit. Kaprizov will take 16.35 per cent of the ceiling in the first season. San Jose signed Macklin Celebrini, 20, to a five-year extension worth $18.8 million annually beginning in 2027-28. Celebrini would take 16.56 per cent of the same projected $113.5 million ceiling used for Makar. Makar remains the most expensive of that group by dollars and first-year cap share. A rising ceiling has not turned $20.4 million into a discount. The NHL set the upper limit at $95.5 million for 2025-26 and $104 million for 2026-27, with $113.5 million projected for the following season. The league has moved the ceiling by $18 million across that two-year span. Washington's Alex Ovechkin provides an older comparison. Ovechkin, 22 when he agreed to his 13-year extension in January 2008, received a $9.538 million cap hit on a $124 million contract.
The Capitals later described Ovechkin's cap hit as 18.96 per cent of the ceiling when he signed. PuckPedia puts the contract at 16.82 per cent of the cap when it began in 2008-09, after the upper limit had risen to $56.7 million. Analysts therefore get different historical rankings depending on the chosen date. A signing-date comparison measures a player's negotiating power against the cap available when the agreement was made. A first-season comparison measures the roster burden when the contract actually becomes active. Colorado will experience Makar's contract on the second measure, not the first. Makar signed at 19.62 per cent of the current ceiling and is projected to begin at 17.97 per cent. Colorado has also secured the maximum available term, keeping him under contract through 2034-35. NHL rules still allow an eight-year extension with a player's current club until the new collective bargaining agreement takes effect on 16 September. Makar gives the Avalanche eight seasons in which future cap growth can reduce his percentage without changing the $20.4 million AAV. Colorado carries the performance risk if the cap stops growing as projected or Makar declines during the later years. Makar said "Colorado has truly become a second home to us" after signing. The Avalanche have attached the largest annual dollar figure in league history to keeping him there. Makar's extension begins in 2027-28 and runs through 2034-35.
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